A new study by China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Rocket Force has warned Chinese cities to prepare for possible nuclear attacks. The study also specifically pointed out Japan as a “major danger signal” to the world. According to the PLA Rocket Force study, the chances of a large-scale global nuclear war are “relatively low”. However, it said the possibility of a smaller nuclear attack cannot be ruled out. Small or medium-sized nuclear-armed or potentially nuclear-armed countries, driven by political or religious conflicts, could carry out a single nuclear attack on neighbouring countries or key cities of major powers, as reported by the South China Morning Post. The study said Japan has not joined the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, an international agreement adopted in 2017 that bans nuclear weapons. It also claimed that Japan was considering changes to its long-standing “three non-nuclear principles”, not possessing, producing or allowing nuclear weapons to be introduced into the country. The study said this was “sending a major danger signal to the international community”. In January 2022, China, the United States, Russia, Britain and France, the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, issued a joint statement saying that “a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought”. However, the PLA study warned that Chinese cities could still face a nuclear terrorist attack if certain countries or terrorist groups took such a risk.
An official Chinese report released in January alleged that Japan may have secretly produced weapons-grade plutonium and has the technology and economic ability to develop nuclear weapons quickly. It also claimed Japan has a complete nuclear fuel cycle and strong nuclear industry. The PLA Rocket Force study also modelled a situation in which a major Chinese city is hit by a single, low-yield nuclear weapon. Using data from the 1945 Hiroshima bombing in Japan and worldwide simulations, researchers identified challenges for medical teams, including dangerous conditions, widespread disorder and complex injuries. Beijing has already established an emergency rescue network with more than 30 bases to treat casualties from a nuclear attack. Researchers called for more treatment capacity, resources and specialised training.
Emergency preparations recommended
They also recommended stockpiling emergency supplies, including antibiotics and radiation-protection equipment, and keeping them ready for use. The study said public education should be strengthened on nuclear and radiation safety, rescue procedures and protective measures to reduce panic. The researchers said even a low-yield nuclear terrorist attack could cause heavy casualties and complex injuries, putting a “huge test” on the medical capacity of any city or country. They urged China to “prepare for a rainy day”. Beijing has repeatedly accused Tokyo of “remilitarisation” and has long voiced concerns about its nuclear ambitions.
